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Mar 29, 2024 5:25:36 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2017 0:19:56 GMT
Lonzo Ball is currently shooting 26% from three, 33% from the field, and 49% from the line. These would be pretty decent AVG/OBP/SLG numbers (Lonzo to LAD?) (Long Baller Brand?) but they add up to a historically terrible 39.4% true shooting percentage in basketball. In the past fifty years, only three players have played 1000 MP and not broken 40 TS%:
Nikoloz Tskitishvili had a quite respectable 74% free throw percentage for a 7 footer, but posted an unconscionable 29% from the field and 24% from three. He played out his rookie deal and incredibly got a minimum signing with the Timberwolves before being traded for a pick that would become Loukas Mavrokefalidis, because Tskitishvili wasn't hard enough to spell already, am I right folks? He had 99 minutes and another NBA contract wasn't one, and he went back to Europe where he was somehow an incredibly efficient scorer, routinely knocking out 60+ TS% seasons. The Nuggets learned their lesson and never again drafted an inefficient volume shooter whoops they drafted Carmelo literally the year after drafting Niko.
Paul Pressey was a fantastic glue guy for the great 80s Bucks teams of Sid Moncrief and Terry Cummings, sort of the ideal version of what everyone in Indiana thought Lance Stephenson was going to be. Unfortunately his son Phil Pressey is the one who matches this criteria, putting up robust splits of 31/26/64.
He was so bad Brad Stevens spent two years on him and couldn't save him.
He was so bad the 10-62 2016 Philadelphia 76ers waived him.
He was so bad he spent a year with the Spurs DG-League affiliate and still couldn't get an NBA contract.
He was so bad he signed with FC Barcelona But For Basketball Yes The Whole Thing Yes Every Time and is coming off the bench in a league being dominated by the likes of Gary Neal and Tornike Shengelia, and no surprise considering he's putting up the brisk line of 38/26/61.
Rashad Vaughn is the current best case scenario. After a gross start of 31/29/80, he pumped his numbers to 45 TS% in year two and in the present day year three is up to 58% on 35 true shot attempts. Fun fact about Vaughn, his .032 free throw rate (FTA/FGA) last year is the fourth lowest all time (min. 100 FGA), trailing only 1996 Brad Lohaus .029, 2012 Mike Miller .024, and 2004 Brandon Armstrong .023. So he's got that going for him.
The point I'm making is this. Lots of rookies are bad at lots of things. Lonzo Ball's scoring isn't just run of the mill bad, it's so bad that it's unprecedented for a scorer of that caliber to even be in the league down the line, let alone get good down the line. We all know the names of successful point guards who were bad scorers when they started out, but again, there's bad and then there's bad. Here's a list for frame of reference.
TS% name
57 Isaiah 57 Curry 57 Irving 56 Arenas 55 Paul 54 Nash 53 Lowry 49 Westbrook 48 Rubio 47 Rondo 47 Kidd 39 Ball
Put another way, Lonzo Ball is as far behind Jason Kidd as Jason Kidd was behind Chris Paul. Put another way, Lonzo Ball is as far behind Ricky Rubio as Ricky Rubio was behind Steph Curry.
Think of the gap between Curry and Rubio in scoring efficiency.
Now double it.
That's Lonzo Ball right now.
Good luck with that.
-Eric
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Post by Charles Barkley on Dec 14, 2017 15:36:37 GMT
Are those Kidd and Rubio's rookie numbers? Or their career averages?
I do not think Lonzo is going to magically learn to shoot or even be a league average scorer. Having said that, its not even 30 games into his rookie season and I dk if you heard this but he's got some family issues going on. Two of his young brothers are moving to Lithuania leaving only LaDicky back here in the states
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Dec 14, 2017 18:07:20 GMT
Are those Kidd and Rubio's rookie numbers? Or their career averages? I do not think Lonzo is going to magically learn to shoot or even be a league average scorer. Having said that, its not even 30 games into his rookie season and I dk if you heard this but he's got some family issues going on. Two of his young brothers are moving to Lithuania leaving only LaDicky back here in the states Not to mention every player in the league guarding him 2x as hard because his dad is a dipshit.
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Dec 14, 2017 18:11:39 GMT
Hassan Whiteside sitting random games out is fucking my fantasy team. I support a rating lower thread.
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Post by Ian Noble on Dec 14, 2017 19:13:21 GMT
Josh Jackson is sucking and I'm ok with this
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2017 23:20:27 GMT
Hassan Whiteside sitting random games out is fucking my fantasy team. I support a rating lower thread. I will never support Whiteside's rating being lowered. In lockstep with him, I care about only two things. One of them is getting his D5 rating up.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 15, 2017 13:19:46 GMT
Are those Kidd and Rubio's rookie numbers? Or their career averages? I do not think Lonzo is going to magically learn to shoot or even be a league average scorer. Having said that, its not even 30 games into his rookie season and I dk if you heard this but he's got some family issues going on. Two of his young brothers are moving to Lithuania leaving only LaDicky back here in the states Not to mention every player in the league guarding him 2x as hard because his dad is a dipshit. You mean like Jose Calderon last night?
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Dec 16, 2017 7:55:20 GMT
Not to mention every player in the league guarding him 2x as hard because his dad is a dipshit. You mean like Jose Calderon last night? Lol, 2x Jose Calderon on defense is what? Me trying my hardest?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 24, 2017 18:57:19 GMT
We're all very excited about Ben Simmons. Some of us are getting carried away: "[Simmons is] a top-15 or 20 player already." Let's take a breath. Simmons is scoring 17 a game on 51% from the field, 9 boards and 8 dimes a game, putting up bleals like crazy. All of this is good! But there are a lot of red flags too. Out of 64 players currently scoring 15 a game this season, Simmons is 57th in true shooting percentage, a measure that takes into accounts three point and free throw shooting. The current top and bottom three: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Steph Curry ... Carmelo Anthony, Russell Westbrook, Andrew Wiggins. Looks like a pretty solid metric to me. "But wait!" you may cry, "LeBron only put up 49 TS% his rookie year!" Fact! Absolutely fact. But here's the thing. LeBron took 3s on 15% of his attempts and made 29% of them as a rookie, and hit 75% from the line; this gave him a 49% shot at ever becoming a decent three point shooter. By comparison, Simmons is on track to go 0 for 24 on the season from downtown - as also previously demonstrated, only 9% of players who don't make a single three their rookie season go on to do so. Not good odds. There's also his brisk 54% free throw percentage to consider. What are his odds at improving that? Well, in NBA history there have only been four rookies to score 15+ per game and not hit 60% or better from the line, so the sample size is kinda small, so let's go one by one. Wilt Chamberlain put up 38 a game and 58% from the line. He was actually reasonably competent from the line to start his career, over his first four years he maintained that 58% number... then for the rest of his career he hit 47%. Shaquille O'Neal put up 23 a game and 59% from the line. He dropped off immediately but not as dramatically, making 52% the rest of his career. Like Wilt, he managed exactly one season (narrowly) above 60%. Thirty-three combined seasons, two above 60%. Elmore Smith averaged an astonishing 17 points 15 boards as a rookie Brave in 1972, losing out in a crowded ROY race also involving Austin Carr to Sidney Wicks. Meanwhile the ABA Rookie of the Year race was between Artis Gilmore, Julius Erving, and George McGinnis. Unlike the first two, the pride of Kentucky State University managed to improve on his rookie 53 FT%, finishing his career at 58% with three years over 60%. Also unlike the first two, he never made an All-Star or All-NBA team and sits at a cool 0.0% Hall of Fame probability per basketball-reference. Chris Webber put up 18 a game and 53% from the line, and over his first six seasons averaged 54%. In the new millennium, however, Webber turned over a new leaf and remembered how many timeouts there were hit an astonishing 75% from the line, averaging 71% over the last nine years of his career. Aside from a nine game brickfest in his last season, he never hit below 60%. So there is hope, sort of. For whatever it's worth, Webber is a power forward same as Simmons while the other three were pure centers, and his explanation for the improvement is "practice", so it's conceivable. At the same time, Simmons (like Lonzo) doesn't need to improve just one of these, he needs both to become an above average scorer. Not even an elite scorer! Just above average! And it's hard to picture either of them reaching the lofty hype (mostly forgotten in Ball's case) without being at least an above average scorer. -Eric
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Post by Ian Noble on Dec 25, 2017 11:35:44 GMT
https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/7lyvum/ben_simmons_is_one_of_only_3_players_ever_to_post/ Ben Simmons is one of only 3 rookies to ever post above 15pts/5rbds/5asts per game, while shooting above .500 FG%. The other 2 players are Michael Jordan 28.2p/6.5r/5.9a .515 FG% and Magic Johnson 18.0p/7.7r/7.3a .530 FG% Ben simmons is currently averaging 17.1p/8.8r/7.7a .511FG% I think this helps put the rookie season Ben Simmons is having into perspective.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 25, 2017 15:29:24 GMT
https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/7lyvum/ben_simmons_is_one_of_only_3_players_ever_to_post/ Ben Simmons is one of only 3 rookies to ever post above 15pts/5rbds/5asts per game, while shooting above .500 FG%. The other 2 players are Michael Jordan 28.2p/6.5r/5.9a .515 FG% and Magic Johnson 18.0p/7.7r/7.3a .530 FG% Ben simmons is currently averaging 17.1p/8.8r/7.7a .511FG% I think this helps put the rookie season Ben Simmons is having into perspective. Sure, just make sure to put the brakes on. Season one is going wonderfully, but he will need to show a lot of growth in shooting to make the handful of elite players. He certainly has the potential, though.
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Post by Ian Noble on Dec 25, 2017 16:12:43 GMT
I drafted Simmons thinking he would never develop a decent jump shot. I still don't think Simmons will ever be a good shooter. He might become a bit Blake Griffin at most. But with him and Giannis it doesn't hugely matter because they're elitely athletic freaks of nature who can play the point.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2017 18:36:17 GMT
Did Getting Bledsoe Help the Bucks?
They're 14-9 with him and 4-6 without him. Over 82 games those prorate to 50 and 33 wins respectively - obviously the Bucks are way better now!
Settle down.
First of all, by Pythagorean Win-Loss their prorations should have been 43 to 32. Second of all, they had a 43% road schedule post-Bledsoe and 50% before. Third of all, the average PWL of their opponents is 38 since the trade and 45 before.
Put that all together and it looks like he's barely moved the needle, probably getting them the equivalent of a couple wins over an 82 game season.
Which makes sense! He's putting up a league-average .100 WS/48 and while his career number of .098 is indistinguishable from Brogdon's .095, replacing Dellavedova's .063 tier backup minutes with Brogdon works out to +1.1 wins over an 82 game season.
Is that worth $14 mil a year? ...being within $5m of the salary cap next year with $0 allocated to Jabari Parker? ...being out a first round and second round pick?
Doesn't look like it to me.
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Post by Walt Frazier on Dec 30, 2017 0:22:22 GMT
Did Getting Bledsoe Help the Bucks?They're 14-9 with him and 4-6 without him. Over 82 games those prorate to 50 and 33 wins respectively - obviously the Bucks are way better now! Settle down. First of all, by Pythagorean Win-Loss their prorations should have been 43 to 32. Second of all, they had a 43% road schedule post-Bledsoe and 50% before. Third of all, the average PWL of their opponents is 38 since the trade and 45 before. Put that all together and it looks like he's barely moved the needle, probably getting them the equivalent of a couple wins over an 82 game season. Which makes sense! He's putting up a league-average .100 WS/48 and while his career number of .098 is indistinguishable from Brogdon's .095, replacing Dellavedova's .063 tier backup minutes with Brogdon works out to +1.1 wins over an 82 game season. Is that worth $14 mil a year? ...being within $5m of the salary cap next year with $0 allocated to Jabari Parker? ...being out a first round and second round pick? Doesn't look like it to me. I'm not sure this is even "big down"-ing my guy, as much as it's "big down"-ing the Bucks' decision to trade for him. So, I'm gonna let it go.
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Jan 11, 2018 10:04:22 GMT
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Post by Brian Scalabrine on Jan 11, 2018 16:43:21 GMT
You can't teach that sort of fire and passion
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Post by Chauncey Billups on Jan 12, 2018 15:35:15 GMT
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Jan 12, 2018 23:27:34 GMT
You can't teach that level of fire and passion.
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Post by Charles Barkley on Jan 13, 2018 3:57:28 GMT
Of all the players we have downed, we haven't downed the one most deserving, Markelle Fultz
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2018 4:02:33 GMT
Of all the players we have downed, we haven't downed the one most deserving, Markelle Fultz You can't down a guy when he's down, CB.
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Post by Chauncey Billups on Jan 13, 2018 6:04:41 GMT
Of all the players we have downed, we haven't downed the one most deserving, Markelle Fultz Wrong
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Post by Ian Noble on Jan 15, 2018 1:32:31 GMT
What is it with the Sixers ability to mess around with the careers of their top draft picks?! Fultz shooting a 3 - in what universe is that shot an improvement on his gorgeous high-release, dependable outside shot from Washington?! It's absolutely insane.
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Post by Chauncey Billups on Jan 15, 2018 2:22:19 GMT
What is it with the Sixers ability to mess around with the careers of their top draft picks?! Fultz shooting a 3 - in what universe is that shot an improvement on his gorgeous high-release, dependable outside shot from Washington?! It's absolutely insane. I feel bad for the guy. I feel like it's 90% mental at this point. I honestly don't think he'll be the same. Totally bizarre.
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Post by Andrei Kirilenko on Jan 15, 2018 9:48:09 GMT
The 76ers would be so stacked if they were actually decent at drafting. They basically have nothing to show for the 2013 (Nerlens + MCW), 2015 (Okafor), and 2017 (Fultz) drafts.
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Jan 15, 2018 17:09:54 GMT
The 76ers would be so stacked if they were actually decent at drafting. They basically have nothing to show for the 2013 (Nerlens + MCW), 2015 (Okafor), and 2017 (Fultz) drafts. Idk, MCW and Noel could have been decent if they had been coached correctly. Plus that draft sucked anyway. Okafor was a terrible choice as evidenced by when I said it. Fultz was like 6-8 on my board based on my mood. Idk.
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Post by Brian Scalabrine on Jan 15, 2018 17:42:36 GMT
Theoretically sixers could've had a lineup of
Ben Simmons Jayson Tatum Roco Kristaps Embiid
Saric TLC $50+ million cap space
Still have the Lakers lottery pick this year and kings lottery pick next year.
That would've been a scary ass team. Possibly better than the warriors in a couple years.
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Jan 18, 2018 13:56:22 GMT
Outside of last years draft if they do anything other than what they did they might be better and get different picks.
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Post by Ian Noble on Jan 18, 2018 16:08:37 GMT
Outside of last years draft if they do anything other than what they did they might be better and get different picks. Embiid is the big IF imho IF Embiid never gets injured... Hinkie keeps his job Ian Noble doesn't tank so hard, never gets Jaylen Brown , is never able to trade for Jabari or Ingram
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Post by Jeremiah Hill on Jan 19, 2018 4:40:20 GMT
Wiggins -31 tonight. Pretty bad.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 20, 2018 1:41:00 GMT
Wiggins -31 tonight. Pretty bad. On/off is a joke almost as big of a joke as RPM
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