Post by George Gervin on Dec 13, 2019 20:06:38 GMT
From one 2018 D5 Spurs lottery draftee to another, it’s also time to recognize the leap that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has taken in Year 2. I was cautiously optimistic based on how his rookie season with the Clippers progressed that SGA would make a jump in Year 2; in his only Stock Watch in 2018, I had highlighted that despite statistics that appeared pedestrian (11 PPG/3.3 APG/2.8 RPG/1.2 SPG in 27 MPG on 47%/37%/80% shooting splits), he did a lot of things on the court for the Clippers – such as cerebral passing and sharp defensive play – that didn’t necessarily show up in a box score, but contributed to winning, night after night. He was also a rookie who played in all 82 games – under a notoriously fickle coach with young players in Doc Rivers – and started 73 of those.
Once the first round of the playoffs came around versus the Warriors, he took his game to a different level, showing the moment wasn’t too big for him by increasing his PPG (11 to 14) under the same minutes as the regular season, plus very respectable 47%/50%/85% shooting splits. It looked like the Clippers had found their long term answer at one of their backcourt spots…until Kawhi Leonard orchestrated a superstar power move and SGA ended up the main “franchise player” piece going back to OKC for Paul George. To be honest, I wasn’t sure how SGA would respond to going from on the ball in LA to off ball next to one of the most ball dominant guards in recent NBA history in Chris Paul. To my surprise, he has really taken to his role with the Thunder and displayed significant growth. Comparing his 2018-19 to 2019-20 statistics, the leap on paper is pretty clear:
• 2018-19 traditional statistics: 10.8 PPG/3.3. APG/2.8 RPG/1.2 SPG in 27 MPG on 47% FG/37% 3PM (albeit on just 2 attempts per game)/80% FT
• 2019-20 traditional statistics: 18.6 PPG/3 APG/5.1 RPG/1.0 SPG in 35 MPG on 43% FG/36% 3PM (more than doubled his attempts to 4 per game while still maintaining the same percentages)/80% FT (doubling his FT attempts from 2.5 last year to 4.8 in Year 2) with only a minimal uptick in turnovers (2.2 from 1.7) despite the increased minutes, offensive attention, and role
Using Basketball Reference’s Player Finder, comparison wise SGA’s second year – not unlike Luka Doncic’s second year, though not on the same historical level obviously – has some quirky parallels. The players who, age 21 season or younger, that averaged at least 18 PPG/5 RPG/2.5 APG/1 SPG is pretty small:
• Luka Doncic
• LeBron James
• Kevin Durant
• Tracy McGrady
• Kobe Bryant
• Kevin Garnett
• Shareef Abdur-Rahim
• Magic Johnson
• Chris Webber
• Antoine Walker
• Adrian Dantley
To say that’s an interesting group is putting lightly; SGA, right now, isn’t showing quite the level of shooting efficiency to be put on the level of most of the players on that list, but he certainly plays above a player rated 77. Comparison wise, his current season actually tracks closest to Kobe’s age 20 season when he averaged 20 PPG/5.3 RPG/3.8 APG/1.4 SPG on 47%/27% 3PM/84% FT shooting splits. Do I think SGA is Kobe? No – I’d be floored if he came anywhere close to that kind of player in his prime. Do I think he’s going to be an All Star caliber player within the next 2-3 seasons? Yes. Rating wise, I think a solid bump is appropriate given his traditional statistics increase from last season, but nothing that would put him above similar young players – such as Donovan Mitchell or Jamal Murray – who have shown more in a primary initiator capacity than SGA.
Current rating: 77
Suggested rating: 82
Once the first round of the playoffs came around versus the Warriors, he took his game to a different level, showing the moment wasn’t too big for him by increasing his PPG (11 to 14) under the same minutes as the regular season, plus very respectable 47%/50%/85% shooting splits. It looked like the Clippers had found their long term answer at one of their backcourt spots…until Kawhi Leonard orchestrated a superstar power move and SGA ended up the main “franchise player” piece going back to OKC for Paul George. To be honest, I wasn’t sure how SGA would respond to going from on the ball in LA to off ball next to one of the most ball dominant guards in recent NBA history in Chris Paul. To my surprise, he has really taken to his role with the Thunder and displayed significant growth. Comparing his 2018-19 to 2019-20 statistics, the leap on paper is pretty clear:
• 2018-19 traditional statistics: 10.8 PPG/3.3. APG/2.8 RPG/1.2 SPG in 27 MPG on 47% FG/37% 3PM (albeit on just 2 attempts per game)/80% FT
• 2019-20 traditional statistics: 18.6 PPG/3 APG/5.1 RPG/1.0 SPG in 35 MPG on 43% FG/36% 3PM (more than doubled his attempts to 4 per game while still maintaining the same percentages)/80% FT (doubling his FT attempts from 2.5 last year to 4.8 in Year 2) with only a minimal uptick in turnovers (2.2 from 1.7) despite the increased minutes, offensive attention, and role
Using Basketball Reference’s Player Finder, comparison wise SGA’s second year – not unlike Luka Doncic’s second year, though not on the same historical level obviously – has some quirky parallels. The players who, age 21 season or younger, that averaged at least 18 PPG/5 RPG/2.5 APG/1 SPG is pretty small:
• Luka Doncic
• LeBron James
• Kevin Durant
• Tracy McGrady
• Kobe Bryant
• Kevin Garnett
• Shareef Abdur-Rahim
• Magic Johnson
• Chris Webber
• Antoine Walker
• Adrian Dantley
To say that’s an interesting group is putting lightly; SGA, right now, isn’t showing quite the level of shooting efficiency to be put on the level of most of the players on that list, but he certainly plays above a player rated 77. Comparison wise, his current season actually tracks closest to Kobe’s age 20 season when he averaged 20 PPG/5.3 RPG/3.8 APG/1.4 SPG on 47%/27% 3PM/84% FT shooting splits. Do I think SGA is Kobe? No – I’d be floored if he came anywhere close to that kind of player in his prime. Do I think he’s going to be an All Star caliber player within the next 2-3 seasons? Yes. Rating wise, I think a solid bump is appropriate given his traditional statistics increase from last season, but nothing that would put him above similar young players – such as Donovan Mitchell or Jamal Murray – who have shown more in a primary initiator capacity than SGA.
Current rating: 77
Suggested rating: 82