Post by George Gervin on Dec 13, 2019 5:56:44 GMT
NOTE: Please read the whole argument I’ve laid out, as my rating suggestion is at the end, but I think it’s warranted based on all the data.
I think after his latest insane statistical outing in the NBA’s Mexico City game tonight, it feels like a good time to put this Stock Watch on the floor: Luka Doncic has been on a tear through the first quarter of this season, and he closed last season very strong as well. Since his last – and only – Stock Watch in December 2018, his averages over the Mavericks last 40 games to close out that season were as follows:
While the percentages are not particularly inspiring, his usage rate (30%) at such a young age is staggering, and he’s the only player since the ABA/NBA merger in the 1970s with a usage rate that high while starting 70 or more games in his rookie season. If you expand it to age 22 seasons or earlier, and based on Luka’s current usage rate of 36%, he’d only be the fourth player with multiple 30% or more usage seasons before age 22. The list is pretty nice company for players with that usage rate and number of starts:
• LeBron James (2x)
• Kevin Durant (2x)
• Tracy McGrady (2x)
• Carmelo Anthony
• Russell Westbrook
• Derrick Rose
• Shaquille O’Neal
• Donovan Mitchell
• D’Angelo Russell (sorry, there’s always one outlier…)
Taking a step back, those numbers from his last 40 games in 2018 would warrant a bump from his current 83 rating to at least the 86-87 range. However, his play this season has gone to arguably top 12 player/MVP type level. Simply put, he’s having the greatest statistical season by most measures (traditional and advanced stats) for a player under the age of 21. Per Basketball Reference’s Player Finder, the list of players who averaged at least 25 PPG, 5 RPG, and 5 APG during or before their age 22 season—including Luka’s current season – is five. The other four players are: LeBron James (three seasons), Michael Jordan, Tracy McGrady, and Oscar Robertson. Four verifiable All-NBA talents – including arguably two of the top five players all time in MJ and LeBron—and only LeBron has had an age 20 season that comes close to Luka’s current averages. Where Luka has distinguished himself compared to the other four players who have had those traditional averages for a season is the advanced statistics impact. Through this season to date, Doncic is sporting the following advanced stats:
• 61% TS (tied with the Greek Freak for that measure, and ahead of players like Paul George, Ben Simmons, and Joel Embiid)
• 13.2 total BPM (leads the NBA in that category), with a League leading 10.7 Offensive BPM to boot
• 31.5 PER (second only to Giannis)
• 4.7 WS (fourth behind Giannis, Anthony Davis, and James Harden)
• .292 WS/48 (tied for second with Harden and behind only Giannis)
• 25.5% Defensive Rebound Percentage, which is far and away the highest rate for any non-frontcourt player in the League and would be the highest rate ever for any player under age 22 that is classified as a Guard (per Basketball Reference as well)
• 47.5% Assist Percentage, which is second to LeBron
To accent the advanced stats above, his traditional counting stat averages (after tonight’s triple-double, his League leading 7th of the year, in the Mavericks win) are:
• 30.4 PPG (third in the League)
• 9.9 RPG (13th in the League and bested only by twelve players listed as Centers plus Giannis)
• 9.3 APG (second in the League)
• 1.3 SPG
• 48% FG/33 % 3PM (on almost 9.5 ATG)/80% FT
Regardless of the way you slice his career to date in the NBA – and in particular his ascendency over the last 65 games played between this season and post December 2018 – he is breaking historical norms that make ascribing a rating to him a bit difficult. There’s an argument to be made that he warrants, at minimum, a rating above 90 even in just his second season; he’s been that impactful of a player, and is a legitimate MVP candidate at just age 20. However, with no NBA playoff experience under his belt, is it justified to push such a rating?
I did some more digging through articles (there are plenty from the likes of the Ringer, the Athletic, and others frothing over his fledgling NBA career and its historical context) to try to frame up just how unprecedented his start is. Per 538, when assessing players since the ABA/NBA merger (regardless of age) who have averaged at least 25 PPG, 7.5 RPG, and 7.5 APG (so a higher statistic level than what I looked for in Basketball Reference’s Player Finder) for an entire season, the list is as follows:
• Oscar Robertson (6x)
• Russell Westbrook (2x)
• Larry Bird
• Michael Jordan
• James Harden
• LeBron James
That’s it. Three Hall of Famers, plus three eventual ones when it’s all said and done for their careers. If you couple his traditional statistical averages to his usage rate of 35% and his true shooting percentage in excess of 60%, per Basketball Reference’s Player Finder the list of players who have ever maintained those averages for a season is two: Doncic’s current season, and Russell Westbrook’s post-KD “Shock the World” MVP tour in 2016.
He’s a dynamo in every season of the word, and his rating should be reflective of that—even this early in his career.
Current rating: 83
Proposed rating: 93
I think after his latest insane statistical outing in the NBA’s Mexico City game tonight, it feels like a good time to put this Stock Watch on the floor: Luka Doncic has been on a tear through the first quarter of this season, and he closed last season very strong as well. Since his last – and only – Stock Watch in December 2018, his averages over the Mavericks last 40 games to close out that season were as follows:
- 23 PPG
- 8.9 RPG
- 6.7 APG
- 1 SPG
- 42% FG/30% 3PM/67% FT
While the percentages are not particularly inspiring, his usage rate (30%) at such a young age is staggering, and he’s the only player since the ABA/NBA merger in the 1970s with a usage rate that high while starting 70 or more games in his rookie season. If you expand it to age 22 seasons or earlier, and based on Luka’s current usage rate of 36%, he’d only be the fourth player with multiple 30% or more usage seasons before age 22. The list is pretty nice company for players with that usage rate and number of starts:
• LeBron James (2x)
• Kevin Durant (2x)
• Tracy McGrady (2x)
• Carmelo Anthony
• Russell Westbrook
• Derrick Rose
• Shaquille O’Neal
• Donovan Mitchell
• D’Angelo Russell (sorry, there’s always one outlier…)
Taking a step back, those numbers from his last 40 games in 2018 would warrant a bump from his current 83 rating to at least the 86-87 range. However, his play this season has gone to arguably top 12 player/MVP type level. Simply put, he’s having the greatest statistical season by most measures (traditional and advanced stats) for a player under the age of 21. Per Basketball Reference’s Player Finder, the list of players who averaged at least 25 PPG, 5 RPG, and 5 APG during or before their age 22 season—including Luka’s current season – is five. The other four players are: LeBron James (three seasons), Michael Jordan, Tracy McGrady, and Oscar Robertson. Four verifiable All-NBA talents – including arguably two of the top five players all time in MJ and LeBron—and only LeBron has had an age 20 season that comes close to Luka’s current averages. Where Luka has distinguished himself compared to the other four players who have had those traditional averages for a season is the advanced statistics impact. Through this season to date, Doncic is sporting the following advanced stats:
• 61% TS (tied with the Greek Freak for that measure, and ahead of players like Paul George, Ben Simmons, and Joel Embiid)
• 13.2 total BPM (leads the NBA in that category), with a League leading 10.7 Offensive BPM to boot
• 31.5 PER (second only to Giannis)
• 4.7 WS (fourth behind Giannis, Anthony Davis, and James Harden)
• .292 WS/48 (tied for second with Harden and behind only Giannis)
• 25.5% Defensive Rebound Percentage, which is far and away the highest rate for any non-frontcourt player in the League and would be the highest rate ever for any player under age 22 that is classified as a Guard (per Basketball Reference as well)
• 47.5% Assist Percentage, which is second to LeBron
To accent the advanced stats above, his traditional counting stat averages (after tonight’s triple-double, his League leading 7th of the year, in the Mavericks win) are:
• 30.4 PPG (third in the League)
• 9.9 RPG (13th in the League and bested only by twelve players listed as Centers plus Giannis)
• 9.3 APG (second in the League)
• 1.3 SPG
• 48% FG/33 % 3PM (on almost 9.5 ATG)/80% FT
Regardless of the way you slice his career to date in the NBA – and in particular his ascendency over the last 65 games played between this season and post December 2018 – he is breaking historical norms that make ascribing a rating to him a bit difficult. There’s an argument to be made that he warrants, at minimum, a rating above 90 even in just his second season; he’s been that impactful of a player, and is a legitimate MVP candidate at just age 20. However, with no NBA playoff experience under his belt, is it justified to push such a rating?
I did some more digging through articles (there are plenty from the likes of the Ringer, the Athletic, and others frothing over his fledgling NBA career and its historical context) to try to frame up just how unprecedented his start is. Per 538, when assessing players since the ABA/NBA merger (regardless of age) who have averaged at least 25 PPG, 7.5 RPG, and 7.5 APG (so a higher statistic level than what I looked for in Basketball Reference’s Player Finder) for an entire season, the list is as follows:
• Oscar Robertson (6x)
• Russell Westbrook (2x)
• Larry Bird
• Michael Jordan
• James Harden
• LeBron James
That’s it. Three Hall of Famers, plus three eventual ones when it’s all said and done for their careers. If you couple his traditional statistical averages to his usage rate of 35% and his true shooting percentage in excess of 60%, per Basketball Reference’s Player Finder the list of players who have ever maintained those averages for a season is two: Doncic’s current season, and Russell Westbrook’s post-KD “Shock the World” MVP tour in 2016.
He’s a dynamo in every season of the word, and his rating should be reflective of that—even this early in his career.
Current rating: 83
Proposed rating: 93