D5 OS Analytics (Top WAR) - Part One - The Sound of Silence
Sept 7, 2019 13:39:11 GMT
Andrei Kirilenko, Amare Stoudemire, and 1 more like this
Post by George Gervin on Sept 7, 2019 13:39:11 GMT
Hello darkness my old friend, I've come to talk with you again...
Here is Part One of the D5 Future WAR Analytics! This batch includes teams with dim futures informed by many, though not all the same, factors – hard capped, going for the title, poor management – that have led to a future potentially devoid of contributing players.
30. Portland Trailblazers: Top 3 WAR Score: 2.1. GM: Jerry West The bottom begins with the Trailblazers, a team that clearly lacks, based on its current roster, much young talent. The players that make up its sub-age 25 core were all drafted this year in the late 2nd round, and the hit rate on such players tends to be very low. They have a solid trio of veteran players in DeRozan, Lowry, and Jonas V, but the Trailblazers have a very long uphill climb to field a competitive group when that trio begins to fade.
29. Orlando Magic: Top 3 WAR Score: 3.4. GM: Blake Bowman Second from the bottom is the Magic, a team that has a solid top six of players firmly in their prime (or in Millsap’s case, a little beyond prime), but one lacking any sort of young, reliable depth that could step up and push them further in the playoff discussion. The top of the Magic’s young WAR pile is Justin Jackson, he who hasn’t exactly stood out in the NBA with the Kings and then the Mavericks; the other three eligible players net out to 0.3 WAR over the next five seasons combined. In short, Orlando could use some young blood that projects to contribute even a little if they hope to field a good team when their core ages out.
28. Charlotte Hornets: Top 3 WAR Score: 5.2. GM: James Kay Third from the bottom, we have the Charlotte Hornets. I’ll caveat with, despite the injury histories of Durant, Westbrook, and George, a lot of us would roll with the Hornets roster if given the chance. However, if we’re talking after the Big Four era is over for the Hornets, their roster is looking rather barren. Nerlens Noel is the only player providing above replacement value under the age of 25, and Damyean Dotson may not be a Hornet for long given the hard cap pressure. I’m sure the Hornets aren’t sweating the lack of young guns waiting to step up, as they’re all in for the here and now, but the roster shows there will likely be a steep cliff dive when the Big Four is done for the Hornets.
27. Los Angeles Clippers: Top 3 WAR Score: 5.3. GM: Mike Krzyzewski Next up are the Clippers, who have had a bad string of aggressive player decline, trades coming back to haunt them (thanks for the Slovenian!), and overall a non-competitive roster that is cap locked with albatrosses. While the Clippers do have a long way to go, unlike the previous three teams, they do have one player who has youth and potential high upside on their side in R.J. Barrett. His WAR may look low now, but projecting a 19 year old is always a challenge. Harry Giles has a lower projection, but that may be more indicative of the few minutes he’s played than his skill level. Of the teams in this bottom group, they arguably have the most desirable long term prospect in Barrett.
26. Los Angeles Lakers: Top 3 WAR Score: 6.4. GM: Mark Price Right next to their Staples Center neighbors in the rankings are the Lakers. A big ticket team with the name and brand to match, they are set up with a lot of cap being unlocked after next season and surely some free agent targets in mind. As a team, though, their pitch won’t likely include the quality of their young core, which comes in the bottom five for D5. Amazingly, it’s Troy Brown Jr., not Zhaire Smith, who projects to offer the most value in the next five years amongst the Lakers sub-age 25 group. With no first round pick in 2021, the Lakers will have to nail their 2020 pick if they hope to add a solid young piece to their team.
25. Phoenix Suns: Top 3 WAR Score: 12.7. GM: Jared Montini The last team in the bottom group is the Phoenix Suns, which is the first team on the list with a roster built primarily of sub-age 25 guys. Projecting down the road, the Suns best young player is not, surprisingly, Kyle Kuzma, who comes in third among projections for the Suns roster. Both Terrance Ferguson and Kris Dunn project to offer more value in the next five seasons than Kuzma, and Mo Bamba, the greatest “What if?” player of the Suns young guns, did not play enough for a truly accurate projection of his future value; he checks in near the bottom half of the Suns young players.
That concludes Part One of the WAR projection series! Tune in for the release of Parts Two through Five, and the team standing on top of the D5 future pile, over the next few days.
Here is Part One of the D5 Future WAR Analytics! This batch includes teams with dim futures informed by many, though not all the same, factors – hard capped, going for the title, poor management – that have led to a future potentially devoid of contributing players.
30. Portland Trailblazers: Top 3 WAR Score: 2.1. GM: Jerry West The bottom begins with the Trailblazers, a team that clearly lacks, based on its current roster, much young talent. The players that make up its sub-age 25 core were all drafted this year in the late 2nd round, and the hit rate on such players tends to be very low. They have a solid trio of veteran players in DeRozan, Lowry, and Jonas V, but the Trailblazers have a very long uphill climb to field a competitive group when that trio begins to fade.
29. Orlando Magic: Top 3 WAR Score: 3.4. GM: Blake Bowman Second from the bottom is the Magic, a team that has a solid top six of players firmly in their prime (or in Millsap’s case, a little beyond prime), but one lacking any sort of young, reliable depth that could step up and push them further in the playoff discussion. The top of the Magic’s young WAR pile is Justin Jackson, he who hasn’t exactly stood out in the NBA with the Kings and then the Mavericks; the other three eligible players net out to 0.3 WAR over the next five seasons combined. In short, Orlando could use some young blood that projects to contribute even a little if they hope to field a good team when their core ages out.
28. Charlotte Hornets: Top 3 WAR Score: 5.2. GM: James Kay Third from the bottom, we have the Charlotte Hornets. I’ll caveat with, despite the injury histories of Durant, Westbrook, and George, a lot of us would roll with the Hornets roster if given the chance. However, if we’re talking after the Big Four era is over for the Hornets, their roster is looking rather barren. Nerlens Noel is the only player providing above replacement value under the age of 25, and Damyean Dotson may not be a Hornet for long given the hard cap pressure. I’m sure the Hornets aren’t sweating the lack of young guns waiting to step up, as they’re all in for the here and now, but the roster shows there will likely be a steep cliff dive when the Big Four is done for the Hornets.
27. Los Angeles Clippers: Top 3 WAR Score: 5.3. GM: Mike Krzyzewski Next up are the Clippers, who have had a bad string of aggressive player decline, trades coming back to haunt them (thanks for the Slovenian!), and overall a non-competitive roster that is cap locked with albatrosses. While the Clippers do have a long way to go, unlike the previous three teams, they do have one player who has youth and potential high upside on their side in R.J. Barrett. His WAR may look low now, but projecting a 19 year old is always a challenge. Harry Giles has a lower projection, but that may be more indicative of the few minutes he’s played than his skill level. Of the teams in this bottom group, they arguably have the most desirable long term prospect in Barrett.
26. Los Angeles Lakers: Top 3 WAR Score: 6.4. GM: Mark Price Right next to their Staples Center neighbors in the rankings are the Lakers. A big ticket team with the name and brand to match, they are set up with a lot of cap being unlocked after next season and surely some free agent targets in mind. As a team, though, their pitch won’t likely include the quality of their young core, which comes in the bottom five for D5. Amazingly, it’s Troy Brown Jr., not Zhaire Smith, who projects to offer the most value in the next five years amongst the Lakers sub-age 25 group. With no first round pick in 2021, the Lakers will have to nail their 2020 pick if they hope to add a solid young piece to their team.
25. Phoenix Suns: Top 3 WAR Score: 12.7. GM: Jared Montini The last team in the bottom group is the Phoenix Suns, which is the first team on the list with a roster built primarily of sub-age 25 guys. Projecting down the road, the Suns best young player is not, surprisingly, Kyle Kuzma, who comes in third among projections for the Suns roster. Both Terrance Ferguson and Kris Dunn project to offer more value in the next five seasons than Kuzma, and Mo Bamba, the greatest “What if?” player of the Suns young guns, did not play enough for a truly accurate projection of his future value; he checks in near the bottom half of the Suns young players.
That concludes Part One of the WAR projection series! Tune in for the release of Parts Two through Five, and the team standing on top of the D5 future pile, over the next few days.