D5 Draft Analytics: Who’s the Best? (Part 6 – The Average)
Jun 18, 2019 22:05:28 GMT
Andrei Kirilenko, Brian Scalabrine, and 4 more like this
Post by Alex English on Jun 18, 2019 22:05:28 GMT
D5 Draft Analytics: Who’s the Best? (Part 6 – The Average)
Part 1 - Introduction
Part 2 - Best and Worst Picks
Part 3 - Best and Worst Picks, Again!
Part 4 - The Ugly
Part 5 - The Bad
Part 6 - The Average
Part 7 - The Good
In Part 6 of this series we’re going to be looking at the average drafting GMs. These GMs have an average value of their picks that is within 10% of the expected value. As a group, these GMs are doing exactly what they’re supposed to be doing. It’s interesting to point out though that by simply meeting expectations, these GMs are in fact better than most. This “average” group ranks from 10th to 17th. This is another reminder that the draft is very top heavy and that the most common result is failure.
#17 – Jared Montini (PHX) – Average Draft Pick Value: -5%
We resume the countdown with Jared Montini, whose two drafts paint very different pictures. Jared nailed his inaugural draft in 2017 with all three of his picks exceeding expectations. Kyle Kuzma is star of the show, of course, but Ferguson and Rabb seem to be developing into solid role players, which is all you really need from a pick that’s outside the lottery. The 2018 draft went very differently, Mo Bamba is raw and has a good chance of developing into a productive player, but he’s not there yet. The others have all yet to show much of anything. It’s still way too early to judge this group though, we know that with time they should all improve.
#16 – Alex English (DEN) – Average Draft Pick Value: -3%
Coming in at 16th place on this ranking, is me. I found it very interesting to review my own draft history and remember how I made some of my decisions. It came as no surprise that Siakam has been my best pick. If he continues to ascend into stardom, then he’ll be my ticket to climb up this ranking. The most interesting thing to me though, has been how much I’ve improved over time. In my first three drafts I made nine picks that had an average value of -55%, which would good for just 25th place on this list. Since then I’ve been a top five drafter with my 10 picks made over the last four drafts. This group’s average value is +43% and it includes six of my eight picks that exceeded their expected value. It’s cool to see since I’ve put far more energy into scouting the more recent drafts than the earlier ones. Over the last three years my goal has been to scout the entire draft class, which has resulted in an annual big board that looks like this.
#15 – Shane Battier (CHI) – Average Draft Pick Value: -3%
Next up is Shane Battier. He makes it this high on the list mostly on the back of one player, Gary Harris. With just four picks made during his time at D5, that’s all he’s really needed to achieve the impressive rank of average. Okogie and Beasley also look like they could develop into solid players, and if they do, Shane will fly up the rankings as he doesn’t have a high number of picks weighing down his average.
#14 – Hanamichi Sakuragi (CLE) – Average Draft Pick Value: -3%
Fourteenth place on this list goes to Hanamichi Sakuragi. Hana has a cool draft resume because. By the looks of it, he’s either making a fantastic decision, or a terrible one. All of his players either exceeded expectations, or were a complete bust. This pattern was hinted at earlier when we saw that Pat Connaughton was the fifth best pick in D5 history, while Isaiah Whitehead was the worst pick in history. So if you’re sharing draft notes with Hana, keep in mind that you’ll probably either love or hate the results. There will be no in between.
#13 – Charles Barkley (HOU) – Average Draft Pick Value: +2%
Charles Barkley is next on the countdown, and as we can see, he also has a very hit or miss draft history. All but one of his picks were either great or terrible. Troy Brown is the only one to break the pattern as he got a below average ranking. Capela is obviously the standout stud, but he and his fellow great picks are slightly outnumbered by the whiffs. The overall result of this volatile list, is total mediocrity. Charles has the closest real value to his expected value, so he can be crowned the most average drafter in D5. Congratulations, Chuck! No need to thank me. You’re very welcome.
#12 – Allen Iverson (PHI) – Average Draft Pick Value: +6%
I’m struggling to find a way to summarize Allen Iverson’s draft history. I suppose that’s just more evidence of how he deserves to be on the list of average GMs. He has a couple really nice second round steals in Brogdon and Shamet, but they’re balanced out with a big bust in Ntilikina and a handful of other guys that failed to make the NBA. The one guy that could really shift the balance is Michael Porter. If he gets healthy and comes anywhere close to his high school level hype, he could really push AI up the ranking.
#11 – Ian Noble (BOS) – Average Draft Pick Value: +9%
Ian Noble is next on the list at 11th place. His 20 picks have an average value of being 9% above what was expected. Ian has never really had a reputation as a great drafter, something that I’m sure dates back to Ben McLemore, but he’s done better than most. Ben is joined by Josh Jackson and Dante Exum as Ian’s other top picks that missed, but he’s had a handful of others that have played out really well. The 2016 draft was nailed with all three of the top six picks exceeding expectations. Then there’s Joel Embiid who’s been punished heavily by this model for his injuries, because if you’re not playing, you’re not creating value. He’s a true superstar though, so as long as he stays healthy his value differential will only rise. Add in some impressive steals in Montrezl Harrell, Jerami Grant and James Ennis, and it’s easy to see why he’s right on the line between the average and good drafters.
#10 – Josh Barber (BKN) – Average Draft Pick Value: +9%
Josh ends this list, and opens the top ten with his short but sweet draft resume. Josh has never put much value into the draft, but he’s done well for himself. He’s the first GM to be able to say he’s never picked a bust, at least according to this ranking. His worst pick was Lucas Nogueira, but he had his moments in the league, even if he never truly carved out a permanent place for himself. On the other end, Satoransky is his best pick so far. He’s become a solid role player which is all you can hope for with a 47th pick. Bagley could quickly become his best pick though, he had a nice rookie season where he improved significantly as the year progressed. He could be a nice building block for the… Jazz? Huh. Well at least the Nets have Markelle Fultz…. Oh. They don’t even have him? Well never mind then. At least Josh makes up for his misuse of the draft with his trading ability, because he somehow got Kyrie out of this whole thing.
So that’s the end of our list of average drafting GMs. Only the top nine remain, so if you haven’t seen yourself yet, you can feel proud about your scouting ability. Who will get the most bragging rights? Check out the final part of this draft analytics series to find out.