D5 Draft Analytics: Who’s the Best? (Part 5 – The Bad)
Jun 17, 2019 22:32:52 GMT
Ian Noble, Walt Frazier, and 5 more like this
Post by Alex English on Jun 17, 2019 22:32:52 GMT
D5 Draft Analytics: Who’s the Best? (Part 5 – The Bad)
Part 1 - Introduction
Part 2 - Best and Worst Picks
Part 3 - Best and Worst Picks, Again!
Part 4 - The Ugly
Part 5 - The Bad
Part 6 - The Average
Part 7 - The Good
In Part 5 of this series we’re going to be looking at the bad drafting GMs. This group isn’t as sorry as the ugly draft histories we saw last time, but these GMs aren’t doing well for themselves either. In the cruel lottery that is the D5 draft, lady luck has yet to take notice of them. Or maybe they just suck at scouting, I don’t know, let’s find out.
#25 – Magic Johnson (N/A) – Average Draft Pick Value: -53%
Starting off this list is Magic Johnson, the former GM of the Lakers, who comes it at 25th place. Magic made 14 picks and on average they produced half the value they were expected to. His best pick was also his first pick, Quincy Acy, who shows once again that if you find a functional player late in the second round, you’ve done an amazing job. If only Magic had stopped there. Seven of his picks came from the 2013 draft, which might be the most picks anyone has ever had in a single draft. Unfortunately Magic got next to nothing to show for it. Shane Larking was the best of his seven picks that year. Enough said. He left on a higher note though, as his two most recent picks were better. Kelly Oubre has improved consistently and could go into the green next season if he plays well. Then there's Thon Maker, who could maybe, possibly, not be awful. He's still very raw despite being in the NBA for three years, but there's still some potential there.
#24 – George Gervin (SAS) – Average Draft Pick Value: -47%
Next up is George Gervin, the new Spurs GM that in one draft made more picks than the old Spurs GM, JR Wiles, did in six years running the team. Despite the fact that George has a bad average value for his picks, when you break it down it actually looks like a pretty good haul. The farther down the 2018 draft went, the worse his picks got, but that’s the way you’d want it if you had to choose. George hit on his two lottery picks, and nobody cares if you bust on your late second rounders, those are supposed to be busts anyway. Given the makeup of his draft selections, I think I’d subjectively rank George much higher. Objectively though, this is where he falls, but in the long run, things should even out a bit.
#23 – James Kay (CHA) – Average Draft Pick Value: -38%
Coming in at 23rd is James Kay. He’s made nine picks and only two of them met expectations. Those were also his first two picks. He hasn’t drafted a player worth their expected value since 2013, which is an unfortunate statistic for an active GM. Four of his nine picks were also lottery picks, three in the top three. The results for James have been decidedly mediocre, with Ingram, Wiggins and Noel. The way their careers have played out so far that just makes you want to shrug your shoulders and say ‘so what?’ On the other hand, considering the struggles shown by this list, it makes it all the more impressive that James has still been able to assemble the incredible team he has. He’s traded some of his prospects when they were still highly valuable and full of potential. That’s worked out well for him considering most of these guys failed to live up to their hype. So remember that the next time James tries to trade one of his rookies to you, just say no.
#22 – Shaquille O’Neal (MIA) – Average Draft Pick Value: -38%
Squeaking in ahead of James on decimal places, is Shaquille O’Neal. His draft history really only has one player worth mentioning, and that's John Collins, of course. Despite the overall picture not being too pretty, if one in every seven players you drafted was a potential star on the level of John Collins then you’re not doing too badly for yourself, especially without lottery picks. His second best pick, Kevin Huerter, is an interesting prospect too. He definitely has the potential to improve into a solid player. We’ll have to wait and see how those two develop to see if Shaq can make some gains on others on this ranking.
#21 – Spike Lee (N/A) – Average Draft Pick Value: -37%
Next up on the countdown is Spike Lee. Five of is 14 picks achieved expectations, which is the highest ratio of anyone so far. Unfortunately though, none of those players have become stars, they’re just doing a solid job giving back what you would expect of them. On the other side of things, Spike also has three players with negative value, two of which were lottery picks. He also has three more players that produced next to no value, and again two of those guys were lottery picks. This foursome of Dennis Smith, Wade Baldwin, Dragan Bender and Lonnie Walker make up the core of Spike’s lowlight package. Some of those guys are still quite young though and they can still change their fortunes. As always, only time will tell.
#20 – Brian Scalabrine (NOP) – Average Draft Pick Value: -27%
We’re into the top 20 with Brian Scalabrine. Things are starting to look decent now as four of Brian’s nine picks have been good ones. It looks like a lot of Brian’s future value will ride on Jaren Jackson and Trae Young and how they develop. I think Jaren Jackson will be a star, he’s exceeded expectation and is still just a teenager. Trae Young, I must reluctantly admit, has been very impressively productive, at least on offense. I think he’s an inherently flawed player and will always be awful on defense, but he’s proven to still be valuable for Brian. If those two continue to develop well, he’ll climb the rankings in a hurry. Throw in Myles Turner, and you have the beginnings of a solid resume.
#19 – Jay-Z (ATL) – Average Draft Pick Value: -18%
Jay-Z comes in at 19th in the countdown. He’s had a number of early first round picks, and the results have been decidedly average. Combine that with many poor showings from later picks and we can see with Jay-Z’s picks have on average produced 18% below their expected value. His best pick to far is Spencer Dinwiddie, but the really interesting one to me is De’Aaron Fox. Fox made a massive improvement from his rookie to sophomore season. This time last year he would have had a value differential of -122%, but now he’s nearly achieving expectations with -4% compared to his expected value. Assuming he keeps producing like this past season, his value will skyrocket and he’ll quickly shoot into the +100% range and possibly pass Dinwiddie on this ranking after a few seasons. No doubt that would be a big boost for Jay-Z too.
#18 – Blake Bowman (ORL) – Average Draft Pick Value: -13%
The last of our bad drafters is Blake Bowman, who shows up in 18th place on this list. He’s clearly at the high end if this bad category though because there are some nice picks on Blake’s resume. Rudy Gobert is obviously the crowing jewel, but Ian Clark and Andrew Harrison were serviceable players found at the back end of the draft, which is always a big bonus. A few other average picks litter this list as well. In the end though, it looks like the sheer volume of players have yet to reach the NBA is weighing Blake down. A total of five guys from the last two drafts have a pick fat -100% because they’ve yet to play a minute, and who knows how many of them ever will. Then there’s Anthony Bennett…
Alright, we’ve made it half way, and that was the bad news. It will start to get impressive from here on out. We start with the average drafting GMs next, and then we finish the countdown with the good drafters and the reveal of who the best drafting GM is in D5.