D5 Draft Analytics: Who’s the Best? (Part 4 – The Ugly)
Jun 16, 2019 15:41:52 GMT
Ian Noble, Jay Z, and 3 more like this
Post by Alex English on Jun 16, 2019 15:41:52 GMT
D5 Draft Analytics: Who’s the Best? (Part 4 – The Ugly)
Part 1 - Introduction
Part 2 - Best and Worst Picks
Part 3 - Best and Worst Picks, Again!
Part 4 - The Ugly
Part 5 - The Bad
Part 6 - The Average
Part 7 - The Good
In Part 4 of this draft analytics series we'll start our countdown that ranks us all by drafting ability. There were 35 GMs evaluated, everyone who participated in the 2018 draft, and some notable past GMs. The countdown will be split into four sections, the good, the average, the bad… and the ugly. Since we’re going from worst to best, that only leaves one place to start. Today we’ll look at the ten GMs with the ugliest drafting resumes. How much fault do we give these GMs for their poor performance? Should they have known? Or is it all just bad luck?
#35 – Clyde Drexler (N/A) – Average Draft Pick Value: -102%
The award for the worst drafting GM in D5 goes to Clyde Drexler, the former Trailblazers GM. Clyde had four picks over the course of four drafts, and all of them we’re terrible. None of them are still playing in the NBA. This result is almost impressive in its own way though, because an average draft pick value of -102% is actually worse than nothing. If you draft a player that never plays, they accumulate zero value, which means relative to their expected value, they will always be -100%. However Clyde’s picks as a whole added up to negative value, he actively hurt the performance of his team with his picks. Had he done nothing and simply forfeited all his draft picks, he would have improved his performance on this ranking. Yikes.
#34 – Mark Price (LAL) – Average Draft Pick Value: -95%
Coming in the next to last spot on this ranking is our first active GM, Mark Price. This is a bit unfair to him though, as he’s a newer GM with only one pick under his belt, and that player was injured for most of the season. I quite like Zhaire Smith and I think Mark will shoot up the rankings next season, so no need to worry.
#33 – Elton Brand (UTA) – Average Draft Pick Value: -92%
In 33rd place is another newer GM, Elton Brand. He’s in a similar position as Mark Price, but with five picks from the 2018 draft, he’s in a bit of a tougher spot. If it weren’t for Omari Spellman’s mediocre rookie season, Elton would be in last place with an overall negative value. Like most rookies do, I’m sure this group of players will improve, and Elton should also move up the rankings.
#32 – Bryan Colangelo (TOR) – Average Draft Pick Value: -86%
This was one of the most curious findings. Bryan Colangelo has been around almost since the beginning, and despite being present for six D5 drafts, he’s only made two picks. He’s assembled his team almost entirely ignoring this part of team building. JR Wiles would be proud. Perhaps Bryan has avoided the draft for good reason though, as both his picks failed to come anywhere close to meeting expectations. However, it’s very hard to judge with a sample size of two. Given that the Raptors seem poised for a change in direction and they may start rebuilding, it will be interesting to see how Bryan approaches the draft in the future.
#31 – Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (WAS) – Average Draft Pick Value: -80%
Next on the countdown is Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Up to this point he’s made the most picks, with nine, however five of them came from the 2018 draft, so like some of the others, it’s way too early to pass any judgement. Player development takes time, which is clear by looking at some of Kareem’s earlier picks. Jonathan Isaac and D’Angelo Russell have both come in below expectations so far, but if this past season is any indication, they’re developing nicely and are improving all the time. Russell is now a borderline All-Star. No doubt their value differential will climb quickly, and so in turn, so should Kareem.
#30 – Kevin Hollis (OKC) – Average Draft Pick Value: -71%
Finally, after six GMs and 28 total picks, we have our first drafted player that achieved their expectations, this was Terry Rozier, Kevin Hollis’ first pick in D5. Since then it’s been less than stellar, with a number of poor performing picks, dragging his overall draft pick value to 71% below their expectations. I’d be optimistic about Wendell Carter though, he should be a good player, and Kevin Knox is still young enough that he has lots of time to develop. All in all though, I’m sure Kevin will hope for more in the future.
#29 – Brandon Roy (N/A) – Average Draft Pick Value: -69%
It’s hard to say much about Brandon Roy’s draft resume, or him at all. He was active at the time of the 2018 draft, but has since been replaced by Jerry West. It’s also too early to judge DiVincenzo. He had a below average year, but he was buried in the rotation of one of the best teams in the NBA. Only time will tell with him, so we’ll just to have to wait a little longer.
#28 – Mike Krzyzewski (LAC) – Average Draft Pick Value: -67%
Next up is Mike Krzyzewski, whose five drafted players averaged 67% below their expected value. If we were to guess Mike’s scouting habits by his draft history, it looks like he only watches Duke vs UNC games. Four of his five draft picks came from those two teams, and the other one, Justin Jackson, has the same name as a UNC player taken the year before. So maybe he was confused about who he was drafting? Can we be surprised about this though given that he’s Coach K?
#27 – Billy King (NYK) – Average Draft Pick Value: -61%
On to number 27 on the countdown. We have our most prolific bad drafter with Billy King. In D5 history only Walt Frazier has made more picks, but Billy’s been around for much less time. In that time he’s developed a reputation for having a… unique… approach to the draft. Consensus opinions seem to be rejected out of hand by Billy in favour of his never ending search for hidden gems. His approach hasn’t worked too well so far as only two of his twenty drafted players went on to exceed expectations, Zubac and Tatum. Apart from those two, his draft history is mostly a list of swings and misses. Even some of his consensus picks haven’t fared very well, though I wouldn’t put much blame on Billy for this outcome. Guys like Fultz and Mudiay were highly touted and many others were hoping to draft them both, so call that bad luck. All in all though, Billy seems to make things difficult for himself with his determination to walk his own path. One day though, he’s going to hit his home run, I’m sure, until then I don’t doubt he’ll simply continue walking the hardest road.
#26 – Danny Longley (DAL) – Average Draft Pick Value: -60%
We finish off this ugly list with Danny Longley, who ends up in 26th place on this list. On average his picks produce 60% less value than they should. His best draft pick has been Allen Crabbe, and that alone should be all you need to hear. In fairness to Danny though, he hasn’t had much to work with. Only two of his 11 picks were first rounders, and one was pick 28. Only having picks later in the draft really ups the risk factor, but even taking that into account, it’s fair to say Danny has struggled. Again in fairness, Danny hasn’t had to care much about the draft, as he’s had one of the best teams in D5 for long time. That time has passed now though, Sim God Dirk has ascended to the Pantheon and the rest of his team has declined as well. It’s the cycle we all go through, but as the rebuild moves forward in full force, Danny will need some more draft success to climb the mountain once again.
Well that’s the end of the ugly section of this countdown. Those were D5’s ten worst drafters. Do you chalk it up to bad luck and that it all comes down to chance? Or should some have these GMs known better? Hard to say. What can be said is their combined draft decisions paint a sad picture. As a group they made 65 picks in total, and only five of them achieved expectations. That’s an abysmal 7.7% success rate, compared to the 31.2% success rate of the total sample from the last seven D5 drafts. There’s only one place to go from here, but things still won’t be great, the next article will look at the bad group of D5 drafters.