D5 Draft Analytics: Who’s the Best? (Part 3 – Best/Worst p2)
Jun 15, 2019 17:06:10 GMT
Ian Noble, Walt Frazier, and 3 more like this
Post by Alex English on Jun 15, 2019 17:06:10 GMT
D5 Draft Analytics: Who’s the Best? (Part 3 – Best and Worst Picks, Again!)
Part 1 - Introduction
Part 2 - Best and Worst Picks
Part 3 - Best and Worst Picks, Again!
Part 4 - The Ugly
Part 5 - The Bad
Part 6 - The Average
Part 7 - The Good
In Part 3 of this series we’re going to look at the best and worst draft picks, just like last time, but this time we’ll only look at first round picks. The top 10 worst first round picks will include some names that made the overall worst picks, so it will only be half a list of new names. The top 10 best first round picks will be brand new.
Let’s check it out:
Top 10 Worst First Round Draft Picks
#10 – Rashad Vaughn – Clyde Drexler (N/A) – -109%
The tenth worst first round pick ever is Rashad Vaughn. He was drafted by Clyde Drexler with the 23rd pick in the 2015 draft. Vaughn is a pretty forgettable prospect. He was drafted out of UNLV and touted as an elite shooter, however in his time in the NBA he has been consistently inefficient with shooting splits of 34% overall and 31% from three. He didn’t even make a roster spot this season and played in the G-League, so his NBA journey is at risk of being cut short unless he can earn his way back into the league.
#9 – Cleanthony Early – Walt Frazier (MIN) – -109%
The ninth worst first round pick of all time is Cleanthony Early, taken by Walt Frazier with the 29th pick in the 2014 draft. Early was quite a hyped prospect for his draft range. At the time of the draft he was considered to be a steal with his versatile skill set and strong college performance. He was a bit of a tweener though, and as often happens with this type of player, his skill set failed to translate to the pro level. It’s a tough life for a player with an ambiguous position or role in the pro game. Sometimes you get Draymond Green, but more often you get Cleathony Early. He’s well removed from the NBA now, so it’s likely Walt will have to live with this draft result on his resume indefinitely.
#8 – Emmanuel Mudiay – Billy King (NYK) – -111%
Billy King has a history of odd draft picks, but it was one of his safest and most highly touted prospects that lands him on this list. Mudiay was drafted 5th overall in the 2015 draft, and he’s disappointed ever since. His inability to shoot is the biggest issue. Sporting a career shooting percentage of 39% in nearly 250 games, to call him inefficient is an understatement. However, his story isn’t over, he’s still just 23 years old, and he’s coming off the best season of his career where he put up 15 ppg on 45% shooting overall and a functional 33% from deep. We can probably say at this point that he’ll never be a start, so in that sense he’s a bust, but he can still become a serviceable player and earn his way off this list.
#7 – Dennis Smith Jr. – Spike Lee (N/A) – -113%
Coming in as the seventh worst first round pick in D5 history, is Dennis Smith Jr. who was drafted by Spike Lee with the 6th pick in the 2017 draft. His story is similar to Mudiay’s, he was a highly regarded PG prospect at the time of the draft, but he’s proven to be inefficient at the offensive end, and below average on the defensive end. That’s a dangerous combination and will get you thrown out of the NBA without quick improvement. At just 21 years old he does still have time to make gains, but he’ll have to show it sooner rather than later.
#6 – Jawun Evans – Jeremiah Hill (MEM) – -114%
The sixth worst first round pick of all time is Jawun Evans. Jeremiah Hill drafted him with the 29th pick in the 2017 draft. Evans was a star at the NCAA level and looked like a Chris Paul clone in terms of play style. However, while his style may be similar, his skill level is not. This has proven to be an issue as now his lack of size has become more of a problem. He’ll quickly have to find a way to compensate, or he’ll be out of the NBA entirely.
The top five worst first round picks are repeats from last time. Here they are again:
#5 – Collin Sexton – Elton Brand (UTA) – -124%
#4 – Elie Okobo – Charles Barkley (HOU) – -133%
#3 – Frank Ntilikina – Allen Iverson (PHI) – -137%
#2 – Josh Jackson – Ian Noble (BOS) – -143%
#1 – Kevin Knox – Kevin Hollis (OKC) – -159%
Top 10 Best First Round Draft Picks
Now on to the best first round pick in D5 history. This list should be more like what we’d anticipate.
#10 – John Collins – Shaquille O’Neal (MIA) – +199%
The tenth best first round pick is John Collins, taken by Shaquille O’Neal with the 18th pick in the 2017 draft. Collins has a complete offensive skill set for a power forward, and despite the hype for Trae Young, it was Collins who was their best player. The Hawks performance made this pretty clear. With Collins they had a record of 24-37, while without him they were just 5-16. He needs some improvement on defense, but a lot of that might just be due to playing for an awful Hawks team. Apart from that, Collins looks like a star in the making. Shaq may regret having traded him away, depending on how Sabonis develops.
#9 – Montrezl Harrell – Ian Noble (BOS) – +215%
Coming in as the ninth best first round pick ever is Montrezl Harrell. Ian Noble drafted him with the 26th pick in the 2015 draft. Harrell is one of those players that has a far greater impact than their talent level suggests. He can’t shoot or block shots very well, and he’s not even a great rebounder. His athleticism and hustle more than make up for it though and he ends up having a strong impact on both the offensive and defensive ends of the floor. He’ll never be a star, but he’s the ideal type of player you want to surround your star players with. Those players are difficult to find and it make Harrell very valuable.
#8 – Mason Plumlee – Larry Bird (IND) – +241%
The eighth best first round pick in D5 history is Mason Plumlee, taken with the 26th pick in the 2013 draft by Larry Bird. This is the weirdest name on this list and not one anyone would’ve expected before seeing the results. Plumlee has quietly put in a reliable and impactful career ever since being drafted. He’s not unlike Harrell in this way, but he doesn’t earn the same level of praise or excitement. When we’re talking about late first round picks though, he’s everything a GM should hope to find. If you only want to find star players in this range of the draft, you’ll be consistently disappointed, if you want a good role player like Plumlee or Harrell though, that can be achievable.
#7 – Damian Lillard – Vlade Divac (N/A) – +256%
The first superstar on the list shows up as the seventh best first round pick in D5 history with Damian Lillard. Vlade Divac drafted him with the 2nd pick in the 2012 draft. This may seem like an obvious pick now, but at the time it wasn’t. Lillard was only drafted 6th by Portland and a few other bigger names from bigger schools had more hype at the time. It would’ve been easy for Vlade to have taken Bradley Beal or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and called it a day. Taking the chance on Lillard, a comparatively unknown player from a small school, really paid off. He became the face of the Sacramento franchise where he stayed until being traded this past season.
#6 – Anthony Davis – Glenn Robinson (MIL) – +257%
Coming in ahead of the second best player in the 2012 draft, is the best player. Anthony Davis slots in as the sixth best pick of all time after being drafted by Glenn Robinson 1st overall. This was a no brainer pick, so how much credit should we give to Glenn? Who knows, and no matter what, I doubt Glenn cares very much since he has one of the top two or three talented players in the game and a true superstar that will keep his team competitive for a decade or more.
#5 – Karl-Anthony Towns – Jeremiah Hill (MEM) – +295%
The fifth best first round pick of all-time is Karl-Anthony Towns, taken by Jeremiah Hill with the 1st pick in the 2015 draft. Another superstar top pick, despite the high expectations of a number one pick, KAT has still returned almost four times the value expected of him. If you’re wondering how Towns could rank above Davis since they’re both number one picks, well the answer is playing time. This model punishes players for not playing, which makes sense since if you’re not playing, you’re useless to your team. Towns has only missed five games in his entire career, while AD has missed 108. The tremendous health of Towns is a big reason why he cracked the top five.
#4 – Jarrett Allen – Larry Bird (IND) – +316%
The fourth best first round pick is Jarrett Allen. Larry Bird snagged him with the 28th pick in the 2017 draft. Allen has only played two seasons and just turned 21, but he’s already proving to be a steal. It’s unlikely Allen will be a true star as his offense is still quite underdeveloped, but as a defensive anchor and finisher around the rim he has tremendous value. Given his age though, who knows how much he can improve and what other skills he can develop. All in all he’s a great pick up for such a late pick in the first round.
#3 – Giannis Antetokounmpo – Larry Bird (IND) – +317%
Larry Bird shows up with back to back appearances on this list as he drafted one of the most obvious inclusions on this list, Giannis Antetokounmpo, who was taken with the 14th pick in the 2013 draft. Despite already being ranked third on this list, I think Giannis is destined to climb higher and maybe break into the all-time list as well with all the second rounders. We shouldn’t forget just how raw the Greek Freak was in his first few year. It took him a few seasons to become a productive player, which is lost time in this ranking which is all about accumulating value over your entire career. Now that’s he’s a full blown MVP calibre player, Giannis should push up his value differential much higher than where it is now.
#2 – Mitchell Robinson – Chris Mullin (GSW) – +361%
The second best first round pick in D5 history is Mitchell Robinson, taken by Chris Mullin with the 30th pick in the 2018 draft. It’s hard to say much about him since he’s only played his rookie season, but it might already be a safe bet to call him the steal of the 2018 draft. The Knicks were terrible this year too, which makes the huge positive impact he made all the more impressive. While his teammates were playing awful and inefficient basketball, Robinson was showing pure value with good defense and playing within himself on offense. It’s going to be interesting to see what kind of player he develops into.
#1 – Rudy Gobert – Blake Bowman (ORL) – +387%
The best first round pick of all-time is Rudy Gobert, drafted by Blake Bowman with the 20th pick in the 2013 draft. Efficient defensive big men seem to be favoured by this model, and Gobert is the king of that type of player. Considering he was drafted in the latter half of the first round, it’s no surprise he’s ended up in the top spot. Gobert is the best interior defender in a generation, and he’s only just entering his prime. Blake got a true anchor at the center spot with this pick and it give him a foundation on which to build his team. It’s hard to ask for more from a relatively low value first round pick.
That’s it for the individual picks. From here on out we start counting down until we find out who the best drafting GM is in D5. In the next article we have to start at the bottom, so we’ll look at the worst drafting GMs in the league.