D5 Draft Analytics: Who’s the Best? (Part 2 – Best/Worst)
Jun 15, 2019 0:32:09 GMT
Bryan Colangelo, Brian Scalabrine, and 3 more like this
Post by Alex English on Jun 15, 2019 0:32:09 GMT
D5 Draft Analytics: Who’s the Best? (Part 2 – Best and Worst Picks)
Part 1 - Introduction
Part 2 - Best and Worst Picks
Part 3 - Best and Worst Picks, Again!
Part 4 - The Ugly
Part 5 - The Bad
Part 6 - The Average
Part 7 - The Good
In Part 2 of this draft analytics series we’re going to look at the best and worst draft picks in D5 history. Before we get to the rankings though, I think it’s important to give a quick reminder of how picks are evaluated. This is a relative ranking that compares a player’s actual performance with the expected performance of their draft slot. A 15th pick may be better than a 45th pick, but the 45th pick could outperform all the other 45th picks and be higher ranked than the 15th pick that is only average compared to all the other 15th picks. Hopefully that makes sense.
So let’s check out the results:
Top 10 Worst Draft Picks
#10 – Gary Trent – Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (WAS) – -119%
The tenth worst pick of all time is Gary Trent, taken with the 35th pick of the 2018 draft by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. If it’s unclear what his -119% value means, well, the difference between the value produced by a player and their expected value is divided by their expected value. So if a player never plays a game and they produce zero value, their value differential would be -100%. That means to exceed -100%, a player has to make their team worse based on their play. Gary Trent, and everyone else on this list, could have improved their team’s performance by staying home and never setting foot on the court. That is what has earned these players a spot on the Top 10 Worst Draft Picks list. They actually hurt their team.
The good news for Gary Trent is that young players improve. De’Aaron Fox had negative value for his rookie season, but this season was much improved and has ended up meeting expectation through two seasons, and should exceed them as time goes on. So Gary Trent has hope and it’s possible that his stay on this list could be temporary.
#9 – Davon Reed – Kevin Hollis (OKC) – -120%
The ninth worst pick ever is Davon Reed, who was taken by Kevin Hollis with the 48th pick of the 2017 draft. Unlike with Gary Trent, this one might stick. Reed played only 21 games in his rookie season for the Suns before being cut. In his second year this season, he was on a two way contract with the Pacers. He only managed 10 games in the NBA as he spent most of his time in the G-League. His G-League stats are also not impressive at all, so he may find himself in Europe before getting a chance to increase his value.
#8 – Collin Sexton – Elton Brand (UTA) – -124%
Here’s where things get interesting. The eighth worst pick in D5 history is Colin Sexton according to the model. Despite being a highly touted prospect and being drafted 8th overall in 2018, Sexton spent most of his rookie season just putting up empty stats on a terrible Cavs team and he actually made his team worse. That said, Sexton is clearly talented. Even if he never becomes a star, he should still make a positive impact on the floor. If Anthony Bennett can make a net positive impact (barely), then Sexton can. I expect he won’t be on this list for too long.
#7 – Elie Okobo – Charles Barkley (HOU) – -133%
We can start to see a pattern here. The seventh worst pick ever is Elie Okobo who was drafted with the 24th pick in 2018. That means three of the four worst picks listed so far are from the most recent draft. This should help make it clear that rookies mostly suck and they need time to develop into productive players. In total six of the top ten are from 2018, and three are from 2017. That’s despite the fact that this analysis goes all the way back to the 2012 draft. So what does that mean for Elie Okobo? Who knows, maybe he’s a bust, or maybe he’s just a raw rookie that needs to put some time in to reach his potential, only time will tell.
#6 – Chimezie Metu – Hanamichi Sakuragi (CLE) – -136%
The pattern continues with the 42nd pick in 2018, Chimezie Metu, who is the sixth worst pick in D5 history. It’s just way too soon to pass final judgements on so many of these guys. It’s unlikely that Metu will ever make a significant impact, but given that he’s developing in the Spurs system, there are good odds he’ll work his way off of this list.
#5 – Frank Ntilikina – Allen Iverson (PHI) – -137%
Finally! Some true bust material. With the 9th pick in the 2017 draft, Allen Iverson made Frank Ntilikina the fifth worst pick in D5 history. As an interesting international prospect, Ntilikina was thought to be a potential defensive star with a lot of raw potential. Since entering the NBA he’s only been a disappointment. He had a terrible year as a rookie, but followed it up with an even worse year this season. His career shooting percentage is just 35%, career PER of just 6.7, and he’s negative in pretty much every player impact stat you can find. It’s not surprising to find him on this list. That said, he’s still just 20 years old. He was very raw coming to the NBA. The book hasn’t finished being written, but Ntilikina is quickly going to start running out of pages.
#4 – Josh Jackson – Ian Noble (BOS) – -143%
The fourth worst pick ever is another big time bust possibility. Josh Jackson was taken by Ian Noble with the 3rd pick in 2017. He was one of the most hyped players in the class and looked like a nice core piece at the time of his selection. Since then he’s been a constant let down, unfortunately. His efficient scoring in college disappeared once he reached the pros, and his impact has only been negative on the court. Like Ntilikina, his second season was actually worse than his rookie year in this area too. Given that he’s now 22 years old, he needs to show massive improvements, very quickly, or he’ll run out of rope to play with. If not, his career will likely fade away and he could be a permanent fixture on this list.
#3 – Rawle Alkins – George Gervin (SAS) – -151%
The stakes are so low with the 60th pick that it’s hard to really rank Rawle Alkins as worse than the last two names. Based purely on a measurement of performance relative to expectation though, he does come out ahead (or behind?). As the final pick in the 2018 draft, his draft slot is almost a throwaway, so I doubt George Gervin will be very disappointed. Alkins can turn it around too, as many poorly performing rookies do, and since he only appeared in 10 games, he can change his ranking very quickly. However he could also end up out of the NBA very quickly as he won’t get the same slack that higher picked players do.
#2 – Kevin Knox – Kevin Hollis (OKC) – -159%
The second worst pick of all time is Kevin Knox, who was taken with the 11th pick in the 2018 draft. This also gives Kevin Hollis his second appearance on this list. Knox had a truly awful rookie season. He was terribly inefficient and hurt his team on both ends of the floor. Despite this, some people are very optimistic about him. He’s a great athlete and has great height and length for an NBA wing. It’s very possible he could make a jump like De’Aaron Fox and become a productive young player, he does have time on his side as he’s still just 19. Personally though, I’ve never been a fan, he wasn’t very good at Kentucky either and has been hyped up because he passes the eye test. Like so many on this list though, it’s just too early to give a verdict as he’s only just entered the league.
#1 – Isaiah Whitehead – Hanamichi Sakuragi (CLE) – -164%
Finally, the worst pick in D5 history is Isaiah Whitehead, who was drafted with the 51st pick in the 2016 draft. Hanamichi Sakuragi joins Kevin Hollis with his second appearance on this list as well. Perhaps this is an anti-climactic finish to this list, but here it is. Again, this ranking does not take into account context or hype, it simply measures performance vs expected performance. I’ll leave it to everyone else to make the more personal judgements needed to redo this list with those things in mind. If done, Jackson or Ntilikina may rise to the top, and I’m sure players like Anthony Bennett or Emmanuel Mudiay would make an appearance. As it stands now though, Whitehead is the worst pick in D5 history. Since he’s already out of the league, he’ll have to earn his way back into a roster spot to get rid of his ignominious title. Or maybe just wait for someone worse to come along…
Top 10 Best Draft Picks
So with the bad news out of the way let’s move on to the top 10 best picks in D5 history. Who will be the best pick of all time? Will it be Nikola Jokic? Everyone probably assumes it will be Nikola Jokic, right? Well let’s find out:
#10 – Pascal Siakam – Alex English (DEN) – +470%
Kicking things off with the tenth best pick ever, we have Pascal Siakam, who was drafted with the 40th pick in the 2016 draft. Siakam has been 470% more valuable than expected. That number should start to make it obvious how top heavy the draft is. A few players make it big, and they skew the overall results and make up for the fact that most players who get drafted suck. Also since players are measured against their own draft slot, second rounders have an advantage for putting up big value differences. Top picks may actually provide more value, but we expect them to, so they’re not rewarded as much in this ranking.
Siakam started out as a raw, athletic, rim running power forward. He’s made huge improvements in his three seasons so far, to the point that he may now be the second best player on a championship team. I may be bias, but I believe Siakam will continue to improve and move his name up this list.
#9 – Joe Harris – Vlade Divac (N/A) – +483%
The ninth best pick ever was made by Vlade Divac when he took Joe Harris with the 55th pick in the 2014 draft. Finding a single productive player with a pick in the 50s in extremely difficult. The ones that make it don’t even have to be good players to make you look good as a GM, they just need to be serviceable. Harris fits in that mold, and he should give hope to every player that appeared on the top 10 worst picks. Through two seasons, Harris hadn’t done a thing worth talking about. Since then though, he’s found a nice role with Brooklyn in the JJ Redick and Kyle Korver role. He’s improved in this role to the point that he even led the league in 3P% this past season. He’s the sort of hidden gem role player that is about as good as you can possibly hope for with a pick at the end of the second round.
#8 – Clint Capela – Charles Barkley (HOU) – +488%
Coming in at eighth on this list is Clint Capela, who was drafted with the 36th pick in the 2014 draft by Charles Barkley. This gives Charles an appearance on both the top 10 worst, and top 10 best lists. Given the way the draft works, I think we’d all be willing to take that trade. It can’t be said enough that talent in the draft is top heavy, a few guys are great, a few more are good, but most are just bad. Finding the good and great guys at all costs should be the name of the game. Capela is clearly one of those guys. His improved every year of his career. You now have to consider him as one of the premier lob catching, paint protecting, athletic big men in the league. He has his role and he plays it at an elite level.
#7 – Bryn Forbes – Chris Mullin (GSW) – +573%
The seventh best pick of all time goes to Chris Mullin’s selection of Bryn Forbes with the 57th pick in the 2016 draft. This is another example of how finding any functional player with the last picks in the draft really rewards the GM who picked them. This is an area of the draft where any pick is almost guaranteed to fail. Forbes bucks the trend though as he has become a key part of the Spurs rotation. He’s quickly become one of the best shooters in the NBA, so he’s probably earned his way to a reliable career as a role player.
#6 – Norman Powell – Walt Frazier (MIN) – +591
Next up, in sixth place is Norman Powell who was drafted by Walt Frazier with the 58th pick in the 2015 draft. A trend is developing here as we have another serviceable player found with a pick at the back end of the draft. As a tough, hustling, well rounded player, Powell can play strong defense, attack the rim, and shoot the ball. While Powell has a good mix of skills, he’s not elite at anything, so he’s likely limited in his career to being a role player. That’s still an incredible return for such a late pick, as we can see with Powell being 591% more valuable than he was expected to be. If you feel like giving Walt credit for this pick, well you shouldn’t, because he almost immediately traded him away to a much smarter GM for Walter Tavares. If you’re wondering who Walter Tavares is, well that’s exactly the point. Thanks again, Walt!
#5 – Pat Connaughton – Hanamichi Sakuragi (CLE) – +621%
With the very next pick after Powell, the 59th pick in 2015, Hanamichi Sakuragi found another hidden gem in Pat Connaughton. For the fourth time already on this list, we have a solid role player that greatly exceeded their nearly nonexistent expectations to rack up a huge value differential. This also puts Hanamichi in company with Charles Barkley as the only other GM to show up on both the best and worst picks lists.
#4 – Richaun Holmes – Chris Mullin (GSW) – +626%
Incredibly, for the third time on this list we have player drafted in the 50s in the 2015 draft. Richaun Holmes was taken 53rd by Chris Mullin that year. This is also the second selection by Mullin to make this list. It’s possible this is getting anticlimactic as most of these players are mediocre at best, but that really shows the difficulty of the draft, especially in the second round. Finding a talented player with a lottery pick isn’t that impressive, it’s even what's expected of you. Finding a player worth their name with a later pick is where the true skill comes in, and doing it consistently is the mark of a good drafting GM. Holmes is one of those guys that we’re all trying so hard to find. He was a part of the historically bad “trust the process” Sixers teams, but unlike many of his teammates, he proved his value and is now a productive back up big man.
#3 – Dwight Powell – Jeremiah Hill (MEM) – +646%
This third greatest pick in D5 history is Dwight Powell. Jeremiah Hill drafted him with the 48th pick in the 2014 draft. Powell was an unremarkable prospect, and for the first few years of his career, he was an unremarkable player. He’s shown continuous growth though with consistent improvement in his play every single year. He’s reached the point where he’s one of the biggest reasons for the Mavs level of success. Luka gets all the hype, but Powell is the gritty, high energy, do-it-all kind of player that really makes your team play well. He’s not unlike Pascal Siakam in this way. All in all, he’s ended being about seven and a half times more valuable than he was expected to be.
#2 – Nikola Jokic – Jeremiah Hill (MEM) – +723%
Here he is, Nikola Jokic ranks as the second best pick of all time. Jeremiah Hill grabbed him with the 39th pick in the 2014 draft, and as a result joins Chris Mullin as the only GM to appear twice on this list. I was surprised to find Jokic wasn’t at the top of the list. Picking an All-NBA level talent out of the second round is truly incredible. However this ranking is not based only on the value of the player. Jokic was easily the most valuable player on this list, but as a percentage difference of his expected value, one player slipped in ahead of him. This is ultimately because the 39th pick can actually kind of useful, based on the historical analysis, while a pick in the 50s is considered to be almost worthless. So when you get a player that far down that’s actually talented, the bar they have to get over is so low that their value differential skyrockets. So who beat out Jokic as the best pick? Let’s take a look.
#1 – Monte Morris – Larry Bird (IND) – +784%
It turns out the best pick of all time is Monte Morris, who Larry Bird snagged with the 55th pick in the 2017 draft. This is a bit underwhelming, I’m sure, but in an objective measurement, Morris exceeded his expectations by a greater amount than Jokic did. After a forgetful rookie season where Morris only appeared in 3 games, he came back for sophomore season and became an integral part of the Nuggets rotation. He had very efficient shooting and he also appeared in every game and ended up with the third most minutes played this season. Given everything we’ve seen on this list, that’s a very impressive showing for a player picked in the 50s and resulted in him being nearly nine times more valuable than he was expected to be. So I’m positive that after seeing this information, Jeremiah will send a trade offer of Jokic for Morris.
If you thought this list was a bit anticlimactic, you’re not alone, I kind of I did. That’s probably why I repeated myself so often in explaining how it all came down to relative expectations. Due to those declining expectations for later picks, everyone on this list was chosen in the second round. So next time I’ll do another list of the best and worst picks in D5 history, but only for first round picks. See you next time.