D5 - Most likely player to go up/down in rating on each team
Dec 6, 2018 4:16:58 GMT
Ian Noble, Walt Frazier, and 3 more like this
Post by Jeremiah Hill on Dec 6, 2018 4:16:58 GMT
This will be an article about which player is most likely going to go up with their rating vs most likely to go down. I will weight this towards players who will either go up or down the most. I'll also include any honorable mentions if I feel like it.
Atlanta- On a team full of young guys, many of whom were later picks or even undrafted FA pickups many of them only have one way to go, up!
UP- De'Aaron Fox - What can I say he's averaging 17 ppg, a bit over league average from 3 and he's got a better squad to pass to. For a guy who's biggest flaw was considered to be outside shooting this is great news. He's young still so there are plenty of knit picky flaws to go after but overall JayZ should be incredibly happy with this player. If he continues playing like this I expect him to hit 79-80 pretty easily in his second year which is phenomenal.
Honorable UP mention - Bogdan Bogdanovic - Not really getting more minutes but he's been given a green light to finally throw the damng brick up. And he's killing it, almost 40% from 3 and his major scoring improvement is that he's getting to the line much more often and converting on almost 93% when he gets there. Still kind of blah on defense but he's got the stats to get up to 78-79 easy.
Honorable UP mention - Nikola Mirotic - The frontcourtmate of Anthony Davis is no slouch and he's having a career season. He should easily hit 80 overall.
DOWN - JayZ's team constantly gets ripped in articles like this but there really isn't a player on his squad who's on an obvious downward trend that can't be corrected by a better situation. He's amassed plenty of young talent (some actually doing stuff). He has an amazing trade chip in Mirotic if he decides to use it as he's playing well enough that the player option being taken isn't a foregone conclusion like the thought was when that contract was first signed. I anticipate him being a big player for at least a mid-max level FA after tanking a bit more this season to move him to a more competitive place, especially with players OVR on the rise and he can fit two max contracts with no important resignings to worry about.
-
Boston - Ian has crafted one of the most realistic mirrored to real life rebuilds and honestly did it better by not having Markelle Fultz.
UP - Jerami Grant - Welp, after Ian had offered Grant to me 100 times as throw ins on trades he finally breaks 10 ppg and a 30 minute per game role with pretty decent stats. The worst part about this timing is that he's going to be a 5-8 million dollar player minimum come this offseason. 76-77
Honorable UP - Joel Embiid - FUCK! Ok back to reasonable Jeremiah. He's just doing more of the same but playing in all of the games one of the main critiques many of us had. If he keeps this up a 2-3 point jump albeit not that much but at that OVR is a big deal.
Honorable UP - Montrezl Harrell - Here's the guy that will replace the two players I have in the down section for Boston.
DOWN - Marcin Gortat - He's just not good anymore. He's a 73 masquerading as a 79 at the moment. I won't have any problem day 1 of the season putting in a lowering thread for him. Someone will probably argue to keep him at a 75 because he's still OK on a per minute basis but no where near what made him a fan favorite. Unfortunately he's got 2 years left on his deal.
Honorable DOWN - Zach Randolph - He's not even playing, pretty easy on this one.
Honorable GAH FUCK - OK so these are two players who's developments (at least offensively/statistically) who have not really gone anywhere due to player adds on their real teams. Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler was always going to negatively affect him. Brandon Ingram, unfortunately the thought of nothing but open 3s for Ingram hasn't worked out next to LBJ who shoulders a massive amount of possessions, his FT % still sucks ass as well dipping back into negative VORP.
-
Brooklyn - He's got a LOT of injured players and guys coming off injury on his squad.
UP - Domantas Sabonis - Really just a per minute monster. Doing everything way better than last season.
Honorable UP - Devin Booker - If his 3pt shot gets back to last season, that combined with his much improved passing could get him an extra 1-2 OVR points.
DOWN - There isn't really anyone of note. I thought Justise was higher rated than he actually is, but he's proving he kinda sucks as the season goes along.
-
Charlotte - A major powerhouse. Title contenders are more likely to have down players so don't think I'm picking on anyone because their good players are likely to stay really good.
UP - Damyean Dotson - One of the few bright spots on the RL Knicks he's taken a big second year jump. going from a 68 in D5 to a 73-74 is a big jump.
DOWN - Robin Lopez - Just not getting the minutes to put up the stats he used to and rebounding has taken a step back. 74-75 seems more realistic to me.
Honorable DOWN - Jon Simmons - Just not efficient enough, the old man rookie seems to be losing it already.
Honorable DOWN - Amir Johnson - Averaging 4 ppg isn't enough to deserve his 76 rating.
-
Chicago - Quite a few players on this team that aren't in the NBA anymore, David West, Norris Cole and one who isn't playing in DeMarcus Cousins.
DOWN - Dwight Howard - He's taken a dive, not getting the minutes and his blocks are way down. I could see him as a 78-79.
Otherwise everyone besides the out of NBA guys are safe IMO.
-
Cleveland - The always competitive Cavs have some good jumps up and no real catastrophic lowerings either.
UP - Zach Lavine - He's not even close to his 3pt average yet and he's putting up 25 ppg. Good player, still more of a combo guard than true point but hey, there's a lot to be excited about. An 80 mostly for his athletics he's going to get some skill boosts and could easily be up around 83-84 by season's end.
DOWN - Nic Batum - Definitely the easiest one to pick on, sub 10 points isn't worth an 81 in my book even though he is pretty well rounded.
-
Dallas - Team full of weird players. Darrell Arthur and Quincy Acy haven't played a game yet this season so are DOWN.
UP - Will Barton - He came out of the gate absolutely on fire. Got hurt, if he comes back and continues that he's a surefire candidate to get a boost.
DOWN - Courtney Lee - He should be around a 72 with having only played in a single game with no injury to report.
-
Denver - Perennial title contender. Should be interesting to see what this next season has in store for them.
UP - Tobias Harris - Quite frankly the centerpiece of a surprising LAC team, very efficient with great counting stats. Will be hard to argue against an 84-85 for him.
Honorable UP - Pascal Siakam - Probably should be the primary UP guy but I already typed up Tobias Harris. Overall been a revelation for Toronto, Alex must be very proud.
DOWN - Chris Paul/LaMarcus Aldridge - One of these guys will right the ship and get back to form, Chris is just losing athleticism after years of injuries, LMA seems to be a victim of system change as he's not shooting any 3s anymore. They won't be huge drops but they will be most important to Denver's title chances.
-
Detroit - This team is currently a mess, no insult to either GM of this team as they knew what they were getting into. The best player is a rookie and I'm not doing rookies in this. No other player seems to strike me as moving up or down as they are all kinda blah and not going anywhere.
-
Golden State - Lots of older players here, lots of great players who aren't going anywhere too though. Spieghts isn't in the league anymore.
UP - Josh Richardson - Damn I shoulda offered more money. He's currently averaging 7 more ppg this year. Could be an 80 easily.
DOWN - Pau Gasol - Almost half the points per game this season, picked up a long injury. Not looking good for him.
Honorable DOWN - Zaza Pachulia - Basically playing a Kendrick Perkins role for Detroit nowadays. Not worth the 76.
-
Houston - Weird team with a big UP coming from an unexpected place.
UP - Kemba Walker - Dude has been a maniac. Sort of reminds me of the Isaiah Thomas thing in Boston but Kemba is better than Thomas was. Easily gets to an 87 or so I think.
DOWN - Andre Iguodala/Jeff Green - I hate them both, both of them aren't good anymore. Neither should be +75.
Alright everyone, that's it for tonight. Hope you enjoy the content. I'll get to your team if I didn't sometime this week.
Atlanta- On a team full of young guys, many of whom were later picks or even undrafted FA pickups many of them only have one way to go, up!
UP- De'Aaron Fox - What can I say he's averaging 17 ppg, a bit over league average from 3 and he's got a better squad to pass to. For a guy who's biggest flaw was considered to be outside shooting this is great news. He's young still so there are plenty of knit picky flaws to go after but overall JayZ should be incredibly happy with this player. If he continues playing like this I expect him to hit 79-80 pretty easily in his second year which is phenomenal.
Honorable UP mention - Bogdan Bogdanovic - Not really getting more minutes but he's been given a green light to finally throw the damng brick up. And he's killing it, almost 40% from 3 and his major scoring improvement is that he's getting to the line much more often and converting on almost 93% when he gets there. Still kind of blah on defense but he's got the stats to get up to 78-79 easy.
Honorable UP mention - Nikola Mirotic - The frontcourtmate of Anthony Davis is no slouch and he's having a career season. He should easily hit 80 overall.
DOWN - JayZ's team constantly gets ripped in articles like this but there really isn't a player on his squad who's on an obvious downward trend that can't be corrected by a better situation. He's amassed plenty of young talent (some actually doing stuff). He has an amazing trade chip in Mirotic if he decides to use it as he's playing well enough that the player option being taken isn't a foregone conclusion like the thought was when that contract was first signed. I anticipate him being a big player for at least a mid-max level FA after tanking a bit more this season to move him to a more competitive place, especially with players OVR on the rise and he can fit two max contracts with no important resignings to worry about.
-
Boston - Ian has crafted one of the most realistic mirrored to real life rebuilds and honestly did it better by not having Markelle Fultz.
UP - Jerami Grant - Welp, after Ian had offered Grant to me 100 times as throw ins on trades he finally breaks 10 ppg and a 30 minute per game role with pretty decent stats. The worst part about this timing is that he's going to be a 5-8 million dollar player minimum come this offseason. 76-77
Honorable UP - Joel Embiid - FUCK! Ok back to reasonable Jeremiah. He's just doing more of the same but playing in all of the games one of the main critiques many of us had. If he keeps this up a 2-3 point jump albeit not that much but at that OVR is a big deal.
Honorable UP - Montrezl Harrell - Here's the guy that will replace the two players I have in the down section for Boston.
DOWN - Marcin Gortat - He's just not good anymore. He's a 73 masquerading as a 79 at the moment. I won't have any problem day 1 of the season putting in a lowering thread for him. Someone will probably argue to keep him at a 75 because he's still OK on a per minute basis but no where near what made him a fan favorite. Unfortunately he's got 2 years left on his deal.
Honorable DOWN - Zach Randolph - He's not even playing, pretty easy on this one.
Honorable GAH FUCK - OK so these are two players who's developments (at least offensively/statistically) who have not really gone anywhere due to player adds on their real teams. Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler was always going to negatively affect him. Brandon Ingram, unfortunately the thought of nothing but open 3s for Ingram hasn't worked out next to LBJ who shoulders a massive amount of possessions, his FT % still sucks ass as well dipping back into negative VORP.
-
Brooklyn - He's got a LOT of injured players and guys coming off injury on his squad.
UP - Domantas Sabonis - Really just a per minute monster. Doing everything way better than last season.
Honorable UP - Devin Booker - If his 3pt shot gets back to last season, that combined with his much improved passing could get him an extra 1-2 OVR points.
DOWN - There isn't really anyone of note. I thought Justise was higher rated than he actually is, but he's proving he kinda sucks as the season goes along.
-
Charlotte - A major powerhouse. Title contenders are more likely to have down players so don't think I'm picking on anyone because their good players are likely to stay really good.
UP - Damyean Dotson - One of the few bright spots on the RL Knicks he's taken a big second year jump. going from a 68 in D5 to a 73-74 is a big jump.
DOWN - Robin Lopez - Just not getting the minutes to put up the stats he used to and rebounding has taken a step back. 74-75 seems more realistic to me.
Honorable DOWN - Jon Simmons - Just not efficient enough, the old man rookie seems to be losing it already.
Honorable DOWN - Amir Johnson - Averaging 4 ppg isn't enough to deserve his 76 rating.
-
Chicago - Quite a few players on this team that aren't in the NBA anymore, David West, Norris Cole and one who isn't playing in DeMarcus Cousins.
DOWN - Dwight Howard - He's taken a dive, not getting the minutes and his blocks are way down. I could see him as a 78-79.
Otherwise everyone besides the out of NBA guys are safe IMO.
-
Cleveland - The always competitive Cavs have some good jumps up and no real catastrophic lowerings either.
UP - Zach Lavine - He's not even close to his 3pt average yet and he's putting up 25 ppg. Good player, still more of a combo guard than true point but hey, there's a lot to be excited about. An 80 mostly for his athletics he's going to get some skill boosts and could easily be up around 83-84 by season's end.
DOWN - Nic Batum - Definitely the easiest one to pick on, sub 10 points isn't worth an 81 in my book even though he is pretty well rounded.
-
Dallas - Team full of weird players. Darrell Arthur and Quincy Acy haven't played a game yet this season so are DOWN.
UP - Will Barton - He came out of the gate absolutely on fire. Got hurt, if he comes back and continues that he's a surefire candidate to get a boost.
DOWN - Courtney Lee - He should be around a 72 with having only played in a single game with no injury to report.
-
Denver - Perennial title contender. Should be interesting to see what this next season has in store for them.
UP - Tobias Harris - Quite frankly the centerpiece of a surprising LAC team, very efficient with great counting stats. Will be hard to argue against an 84-85 for him.
Honorable UP - Pascal Siakam - Probably should be the primary UP guy but I already typed up Tobias Harris. Overall been a revelation for Toronto, Alex must be very proud.
DOWN - Chris Paul/LaMarcus Aldridge - One of these guys will right the ship and get back to form, Chris is just losing athleticism after years of injuries, LMA seems to be a victim of system change as he's not shooting any 3s anymore. They won't be huge drops but they will be most important to Denver's title chances.
-
Detroit - This team is currently a mess, no insult to either GM of this team as they knew what they were getting into. The best player is a rookie and I'm not doing rookies in this. No other player seems to strike me as moving up or down as they are all kinda blah and not going anywhere.
-
Golden State - Lots of older players here, lots of great players who aren't going anywhere too though. Spieghts isn't in the league anymore.
UP - Josh Richardson - Damn I shoulda offered more money. He's currently averaging 7 more ppg this year. Could be an 80 easily.
DOWN - Pau Gasol - Almost half the points per game this season, picked up a long injury. Not looking good for him.
Honorable DOWN - Zaza Pachulia - Basically playing a Kendrick Perkins role for Detroit nowadays. Not worth the 76.
-
Houston - Weird team with a big UP coming from an unexpected place.
UP - Kemba Walker - Dude has been a maniac. Sort of reminds me of the Isaiah Thomas thing in Boston but Kemba is better than Thomas was. Easily gets to an 87 or so I think.
DOWN - Andre Iguodala/Jeff Green - I hate them both, both of them aren't good anymore. Neither should be +75.
Alright everyone, that's it for tonight. Hope you enjoy the content. I'll get to your team if I didn't sometime this week.